নমস্কার, আসসালামু আলাইকুম,

সবাইকে শুভ নববর্ষের আন্তরিক প্রীতি ও শুভেচ্ছা।

আজ চারিদিকে Corona এর আতঙ্ক!!!! মানুষ ঘরবন্দী, ডাক্তার এবং বৈজ্ঞানিকদের মধ্যে তোড়জোড় চলছে করোনা ভাইরাস এর প্রতিষেধক টিকা আবিষ্কার করার। এমত অবস্থায় আমি আমার সংস্থার পক্ষ থেকে আপনাদের সবাইকে অনুরোধ করছি আপনারা সবাই সরকার নির্দেশিত Lockdown মেনে চলুন, বাড়িতে থাকুন এবং সুস্থ্য থাকুন। Social Distancing ই হচ্ছে এই Virus থেকে বাঁচার উপায়।

আপনারা অবগত যে আমরা ‌আমাদের in-house e-magazine “ঊষা” launch করছি কয়েক মাস আগে, এবং এবার আমরা আমাদের চতুর্থ সংখ্যা publish করতে চলেছি। আপনাদের কাছে আমার অনুরোধ আপনারা সবাই বাড়িতে থেকে আমাদের  এই e-magazine পড়ুন এবং শেয়ার করুন এবং আপনাদের মূল্যবান মতামত জানান। আমরা আপনাদের মূল্যবান মতামতের অপেক্ষায় থাকব এবং তাই ভিত্তিতে এগিয়ে যাওয়ার প্রেরণা পাব।

ধন্যবাদ,

_  নুরানি ইসলাম,

চিফ ফাংশানারী এ্যান্ড ফাউন্ডার, আটঘরা জ্যোতি মহিলা উদ্যোগ।

Flavours of the Festival- Bihu, Vaishaki, Easter & Nabo-Barsho

Siddharth Katragadda, a famous writer puts it “The Greatness of a Culture can be found in its Festivals”, so the greatness of a country like India can be examined by sparing a glance at the vivid and vivacious list of festivals in India. Such diverse cultures, culminating such varied festivals and that too under the name of a single country; such is the greatness of Indian culture. The wide spectrum of religions, occupations, and faiths in the country being the prime cause of such diversification, these festivals are celebrated with sheer enthusiasm and devotion.

To tune up with above flow chart, let me extend warmth Greetings to each and all our Readers, Patrons and Well-wishers for a joyful New year on the auspicious occasion of Bengali Nobo-borsho (New Year or Paila Baishak). May the Divine’s blessings be in every pace of our lives and activities throughout the year

However, through our 4th issue of ‘USHA’, we would like to convey and also caution to all reader the most whistle blowing words of present situation across the Globe which is

“Coronavirus Lockdown ..Stay home, stay safe; # Fight Against Corona”

We have incorporated a few articles in this issue (on Conora Effect) as the hot subject in prevailing scenario as mentioned in my briefing and feel it very relevant for creating awareness at every level through our efforts and effective communication. We are sure, our small initiatives and sincere endeavour would create a ripple amidst the “Mass & Class”

Let me conclude my note with a beautiful quotation (collection) as season’s Greetings!!!

DP Banerjee

নববর্ষ:

আমরা যখন নববর্ষ বলি তখন আমাদের নতুন প্রজন্মের কাছে প্রশ্ন উঠে আসে- কেন নববর্ষ? ইংরেজি না বাংলা ভাষার মাধ্যেম পড়াশোনা প্রায়ই বন্ধ করে ফেলেছি।

তার প্রধান দুটি কারণ –

১। উচ্চ লেভেলে যেতে বই প্রায় দুরস্ত।

২। আমাদের সমাজে এই ঠাঁই বা সম্মান পাওয়াটা খুব সমস্যার।

আজ বাংলা মাধ্যমে পড়াশোনা করছে জানলে ধরে নেওয়া হেব ভবিষ্যৎ প্রায় শেষ। ছেলে-মেয়েদের আর্থিক ও মানসিক অবস্থা খুব খারাপ। কিন্তু ভারতের প্রায় ৮.০৩ শতাংশ লোক বাংলা ভাষায় কথা বলে। UNSECO সমীক্ষায় বলা হেয়েছ, বাংলা ভাষা হল সবেচেয় মিষ্টি ভাষা।

আমাদের প্রথম সমস্যা নিজেকে দুর্বল ভাবা বা অন্যের সামর্থের সাথে তুলনা করে নিজেকে হারিয়ে দেওয়া।

আমাদের নববর্ষ মানে বাংলা ক্যালেণ্ডার, বঙ্গাব্দ – বৈশাখ, জৈষ্ঠ এর হিসাব। কার থেকে বা কে চালু করেছিল অনেকরকম কথিত আছে। তবে এটা ঠিক উৎসব মানেকিছু পাওয়া বা পেতে চলেছি তারই ইঙ্গিত। এপ্রিল মানে – (Year of Harvest) শস্য ঘের আসার সময় এবং উংসব সেই জন্যই। বহুদিন আমাদের শাসন করেছেন মুসলমান সম্রাটরা এটা যেমন ঠিক আবার এটাও ঠিক তারা ভারতবর্ষকে নিজেদের দেশ বলে মেনে নিয়েছেন।

কেউ কেউ বলে মুঘল সম্রাট কর সংগ্রহের জন্য এই সময় বেছে নেয় কারণ শস্য ঘরে আসে। সুযোগ্য নবাব মুর্শিদকুইল খাঁ –কে দায়িত্ব দিয়েছিলেন কর সংগ্রহের জন্য। এটাই ছিল Lunar Calendar – বঙ্গাব্দ। এটাই ছিল ইসলামিক হাজি ক্যালেণ্ডার। কারও কথায় 7^th Century তে গৌড়ের রাজা শশাঙ্ক চালুকের বাংলা ক্যালেণ্ডার, কারও মেত বিক্রমাদিত্য 57BC তে। কিন্তু এটা ঠিক বর্তমান প্রজন্ম যাকে নিয়ে বেশ মেতে থাকে সেটা কবি রবি ঠাকুরের কল্যাণে ভারত, বাংলাদেশ বা ত্রিপুরাতে এটা কটাই উৎসব।

এই উৎসবের বিভিন্ন নাম :

উত্তর ভারেত – Vaisakhi

দক্ষিণ ভারতে – Ugadi

কেরলে – Vishu

তামিলনাড়ুতে – Puthandu

আমাকে যে নামেই ডাকো – আমি তোমাদের ‘বৈশাখ’।

আজমীরের উরস্ উৎসব :

এপ্রিল মাসেই আজমীরের উরস্ উৎসব খুব প্রসিদ্ধ। সুফী সেণ্ট মইনুদ্দিন চিস্তি সারাজীবন মহৎ ও গরীবদের জন্য উৎসর্গ করেছিলেন। তাঁর জন্ম ইরানে। মুসলিমদের মতে তা আজমীর শরিফ ভারতের পীঠস্থান। তিনি ১১৪২ থেকে ১২৩৬ সাল পর্যন্ত বেঁচে ছিলেন এবং এটি তৈরি করেন। পরবর্তীকালে মহহ্মদ বিন তুঘলক এবং আরও পরে বাদশাহ রাজা শাহাজাহান প্রচুর অর্থ ব্যায়কের এটি অন্যতম দরগায় প্রতিষ্ঠিত করেন। বিশ্বব্যাপী বহু ভক্ত দরগা দেখতে আসে।

সঙ্গটমোচন সঙ্গীত উৎসব :

বারাণসীতে এই এপ্রিল মাস খুবই প্রসিদ্ধ রামভক্ত হনুমান-এর জন্মিদন বলে। অসি নদীর তীরে আশ্রমটি তৈরি করেন কবি অতুল দাস গোস্বামী 16^th Century-তে। পূজার আসল উদ্দেশ্য সমস্যার সমাধান ও মুক্তি। প্রচলিত কথায় একমাত্র বীর হনুমান পারে রাহু ও শনির দশা থেকে মুক্তি দিতে। প্রচুর ভক্তের সমাগমও হয়।

 

মোপিন উৎসব:

অরুণাচল প্রদেশের গালো উপজাতিদের উৎসব এই এপ্রিল মাসেই। এই উৎসবেও ঠিক কৃষি সম্পদের সমাহার। Wealth and Prosperity এটাই ভিক্ষা। নতুন চালের গুড়ো সবার মুখে মাখিয়ে আনান্দ করা হয়। আবার নতুন ভাতের মদ খেতে হয়  এর নাম Apong। গালো উপজাতিদের কথায় – জন্ম-বিয়ে-উৎসব-মৃত্যু এই তো জীবন।

 

Tulip – উৎসব:

ভূস্বর্গ কাশ্মীরের Tulip- উৎসব প্রায় বিশ্ব বিখ্যাত। এশিয়ার সবচেয়ে বড় এবং ভালো উৎসব। ৩০ হেক্টর জমির উপর সাজানো চোখ ধাঁধানো উৎসব। ২০০৭ সালে কাশ্মীরের প্রাক্তন মুখ্যমন্ত্রী গোলাম নবী আজাদ শুরু করেন। এটিও এপ্রিল মাসের উৎসব। Canadian Tulip Festival পৃথিবী বিখ্যাত।

 

বৈশাখী:

বৈশাখী পাঞ্চাবের এক নামকরা উৎসব যেটি এই এপ্রিল মাসেই অনুষ্ঠিত হয়। শিখদের নববর্ষ শুরু করে গুরু গোবিন্দ সিং ১৬৯৯ সালে, শস্য তোলা ও সুরক্ষা উৎসব।

পাঁচ রকমের লোকের বিশেষ সম্মান দেওয়া হয় – বলা হয় ‘পাঞ্জ পিয়ারে’।

Daya Singh – Shopkeeper

Dharm Singh – Farmar

Himmat Singh – Water Carrier

Mukham Sing – Tailor

Sahib Singh – Barbar

 

বিহু :

আসামের বিহু উৎসবও এই এপ্রিল মাসে-ই। বি-‘বল’; হু-‘দাও’। শক্তি ও শান্তি দাও। কথায় আছে 3500 BC থেকে চলে আসছে। পাহাড় জঙ্গলে ঘেরা সমাজে নিজেদের অস্তিত্ব রাখতে এই সময় বেছে নেয় যখন শস্য ঘরে আসে তার সুরক্ষা এবং আনন্দ উৎসব এবং ভবিষ্যৎ সময়ের জন্য। নাচ, গান, খাওয়া, পূজা এই সবই উৎসব।

Shad Suk Mynsiem :

ঠিক এপ্রিল মাসকেই বেছে নেওয়া হয় Dance for peace and mind। এটা শুরু হয় আনুমানিক ১৯১১ সালে সিলং-এ। ছয় রকম বিভিন্ন নাচ, এই নাচের মূল উদ্দেশ্য “একজনকে ভালোবাসো – সম্মান দাও”। মেঘালয়ের খাসি উপজাতির এই উৎসব ভারত বিখ্যাত আজও।

 

Chiri rai Festival:

এই এপ্রিল মাস-ই তামিলনাড়ুর মাদুরাই দুই দেব ও দেবীর মহা উৎসব। Loard Sundarwarer (নারায়ণ)। Alagar পাহাড় থেকে নেমে এসে মাদুরাইতে মীনাক্ষী (লক্ষ্মী) দেবী তার পূজা হয়। রাজা Thirumali Nayakar তার রাজত্বকালে দুটি উৎসবকে মিলিয়ে দেন। শান্তি ও সুরক্ষার অদ্ভুত এক উৎসব।

 

Ootmariaman Temple Festival:

তামিলনাড়ু কুন্নুর এর Marimman (মা) কালীর উৎসব খুব প্রসিদ্ধ। শান্তি ও ঐশ্বর্যের পূজা ও উৎসব। এটাও এপ্রিল মাসেরই উৎসব।

এই উৎসব থেকে বোঝাযায় আমি এপ্রিল বিল বা বৈশাখ বলি এ শুধু নাম। আমাদের উৎসাহ উৎসবে পরিণত হয়। আমরা একই সময় সারা ভারতে বিভিন্ন রকম উৎসেব মগ্ন। যদিও আমি শুধু কয়েকটি উল্লেখ করলাম। আমরা শুধু – উৎসব – আনন্দ আর আত্মমগ্ন এই আবেগে বেঁচে থাকি। আমাদের ভারতে সংস্কার ও সংস্কৃতি সব যেন অন্যরকম। সারা দেশে ২৯ টি রাজ্যে ২২ টি ভাষা ব্যবহার করা হয়। তাদের মধ্যে ৯ টি ধর্মের ৩০০০ জাতি ও ২৫০০০ উপজাতি। কিন্তু কোথাও যেন এক অদ্ভুত মিল ‘আমরা ভারতবাসী’।

 

ভারতে বিভিন্ন প্রান্তে এই উৎসবকে বিভিন্ন নামে ডাকা হয়। যেমন –

• Rongali Bihu in Assam
• Juir Sheetal in Mithila
• Bikram Samwat / Naya Barsh in Nepal
• Puthadu in Tamil Nadu
• Vaisakhi in central and north India
• Vishu in Keral
• Vishuva Sankaranti in Odish
• Aluth Avuruthu in Sri Lanka
• Songkran in Thailand
• Choi Chanam Thmey in Cambodia
• Songkan / Pi Mai Lao in Laos
• Thingyan in Burma
• Ugadi in South India

Being at the age of 21 year, I have seen strikes, floods, cyclones in these few years of life, but this COVID 19 pandemic has been the first time I have seen such dire situation. I have seen everything getting closed down for a few days but this COVID 19 pandemic has almost stopped almost everything in the world. This is a threat that can potentially hold back humanity’s growth for years or maybe even decades if not dealt with as soon as possible.

Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Corona viruses are a family of viruses that can cause illnesses such as the common cold, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). In2019, a new corona virus was identified as the cause of a disease outbreak that originated in China.

The virus is now known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease it causes is called corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic.

Public health groups, including the U.S. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and WHO, are monitoring the pandemic and posting updates on their websites. These groups have also issued recommendations for preventing and treating the illness.

Symptoms
Signs and symptoms of COVID-19 may appear two to 14 days after exposure and can include:

• Fever
• Cough
• Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing

Other symptoms can include:

• Tiredness
• Aches
• Runny nose
• Sore throat

Some people have experienced the loss of smell or taste.

The severity of COVID-19 symptoms can range from very mild to severe. Some people may have no symptoms at all. People who are older or who have existing chronic medical conditions, such as heart disease, lung disease or diabetes, or who have compromised immune systems may be at higher risk of serious illness. This is similar to what is seen with other respiratory illnesses, such as influenza.

Causes
Infection with the new corona virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2, or SARSCoV-2) causes corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

It’s unclear exactly how contagious the new corona virus is. Data has shown that it spreads from person to person among those in close contact (within about 6 feet, or 2 meters). The virus spreads by respiratory droplets released when someone with the virus coughs, sneezes or talks.

It can also spread if a person touches a surface with the virus on it and then touches his or her mouth, nose or eyes.

Prevention

Although there is no vaccine available to prevent infection with the new corona virus, you can take steps to reduce your risk of infection. WHO and CDC recommend following these precautions for avoiding COVID-19:

• Avoid large events and mass gatherings.
• Avoid close contact (within about 6 feet, or 2 meters) with anyone who is sick or has symptoms.
• Keep distance between yourself and others if COVID-19 is spreading in your community, especially if you have a higher risk of serious illness.
• Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or use an alcohol based hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol.
• Cover your mouth and nose with your elbow or a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throwaway the used tissue.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
• Avoid sharing dishes, glasses, bedding and other household items if you’re sick.
• Clean and disinfect high-touch surfaces daily.
• Stay home from work, school and public areas if you’re sick, unless you’re going to get medical care. Avoid taking public transportation if you’re sick.

Currently we all are worried about our income, job, health, food, travelling and others. But we are not at all understanding that how badly this might affect our economy, our social economic cycle. First we have to know certain parameters of our economic cycle.

Labour Force in India:

Sector	Register	Actual (projected)
Construction	3.29 Cr	12 Cr
Manufacturing	5.24 Cr	16 Cr
Trade	3.09 Cr	5 Cr
Hotel and Restaurants	2.00 Cr	4.5 Cr
Education	6.3 Cr	1.55 Cr
Health	26 Lakhs	1.26 Cr
Mining	17.91Lakh	1.78 Cr

 

Based on ILO world average unrecognized labour Force 62% but in India the said figure is 90%.

So our economy is for a large part controlled by the Mass.

If we look back to the history, it is obvious that the first world countries and those that are far away from nature they are facing more risk. Suppose USA, France, Spain, Italy etc.  as all were over confident on their activity. They suffered a lot.

EMPLOYMENT Statistics in India on 2019

Public sector	2.15 Cr
Private sec	1.62 Cr
Unemployed	9.20 Cr
Self Employed	12 Cr
Farmer	11Cr
Construction Labour	6Cr
MANREGA	25Cr

 

If we go deeper, a number of countries where population is very low.A country’s population, geographical structure, income disparity, consumer behaviour all are the different parameter of the economy. Sometimes we are comparing with USA, Japan, or France or China. But we are not ready to understand our population which is different from others. Our density of population is much high than China. This population might seem like our weakness but it is our one of the biggest strength. So we should structure our life, economy as per our need and available resources.

Based on calculations of Bloomberg, 2.7 trillion $ output loss will occur due to COVID 19.

Based on UN trade and development agency Cost will be 1.1trillion $

NPA in the world based on Standard Chartered Bank Statistics is 1.1 Trillion $. In India currently NPA in Industry is 11 lakh Cr and in Agriculture 10Lakh Cr. This amount of NPA will grow more due to the losses occurring from this COVID 19 pandemic.

Losses due to lockdown:

Sector	Amount (Approx.)
Real Estate & Professional Services	1,62,099 Cr
Trade, Transport &Hotel	1,61,055 Cr
Construction	65,913 Cr
Mining	23,194 Cr
Manufacturing	86,161 Cr
New Project (Govt)	1.7 lakh Cr up to March 2020
New Project ( Private )	1.2 lakh Cr  up to March 2020
Hospitality sector	30,000 Cr
Aviation	8,200 Cr

 

INVESTMENT (Running Project)
Manufacturing	8 lakh Cr
Power	13 lakh Cr
Mining	1 lakh Cr
Service	6 lakh Cr
Construction and Real estate	1 lakh Cr

 

Agriculture family in India 10.84 Cr. and 72 lakh in WB, who will suffer heavily in this time of lockdown.

Apparel sector is also largest employment provider after Agriculture sector about 129 lakh employment, out of that 65 to 70 % women, a large portion of whom might lose their jobs due to this crisis.

Restaurant industry will lose 15 lakh Jobs.

Report on UN Total migrant (world) 27 Cr where Indians are 1.75 Cr. Out of that 1.25 Cr is in lower income level and remaining are in higher.

In India total Industries (large and medium) 1,55,584. Major establishments are in Gujarat 33000, Maharashtra 30000, Tamil Nadu 22000, Telangana 6000,Karnataka 13500,Uttar Pradesh 12900, Madhya Pradesh 7000, and Rajasthan 7800. And the highest Corona Virus affected states are Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Telangana.

That means it is clear not only lack of education rather lack of awareness and discipline is a major cause of the problem.

It is the situation, where all are in the mental dilemma. Need will create demand and to meet the demand will reach our new target. So keep patience with positive mind.

It is sure 3D’s are very vital in this situation.

“DESIRE, DEDICATION and DISCIPLINE” Mantra to win the Situation.

Where will we be in coming days i.e.  being specific in six months, a year or in 5 (Five) years  from now ?There are a number of possible futures all dependent on how Governments and Society respond to Novel Corona virus (Covid-19) and its economic aftermath. Hopefully this crisis rather a sort of productive loss can be used to rebuild , produce something better and more humane. Putting together in this paper an initial attempt to address the issues pertaining to securing the populations from health hazards, providing relief particularly to the poor, revival of the economy, the viability of businesses and livelihoods of people, ensuring job continuity and job creation in an attempt to mobilize resources to stimulate the economy.

As human civilisation flourished, so did infections disease. Large  numbers of people living in close proximity to each other and to animals , often with poor sanitation and nutrition  provided fertile breeding grounds for diseases and new overseas trading routes spread the novel infections for wide creating global pandemics.

Epidemics widely known as pandemics  have ravaged humanity throughout it’s existence, often changing the course of history signalling the end of entire civilisations. In the realm of infectious diseases, a  pandemic is the worst case scenario . The more civilised human became, building cities and  forging trade routes to connect with other cities, and waging wars with them, the more likely pandemics became.

Timeline below of pandemics that in ravaging human population , changed history:-

430 B.C :- Small Pox caused by Variola Virus (Athence , Greece)

541 A.D :- Justinian Plague (Middle East, Asia & Mediterranean Basin)

1334 :- The Great Plague of London (Originally Started in China, later spreaded across Europe)

1519:- The Small Pox Epidemic ( Mexico)

1633:- The Small Pox Epidemic (Massachusetts, brought by settlers from France, Great Britain, Netherlands)

1793 :- The Yellow Fever  Epidemic (Philadelphia)

1860 :- The Modern Plague (China, India, Hongkong)

1901 :- A Small Pox Epidemic (Boston)

1910 :- The Plague Outbreak(Manchuria, Sub Saharan Africa)

1918:- The Great Flu Pandemic/Spanish Flu (Killed 30 to 50 Million People Worldwide)

1952:- Polio(United States)

1984:- HIV/AIDS

2003:-  Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/SARS

2009 :- Global H1N1 Flu

2010:- The Cholera Epidemic (Haiti)

2014:- The Ebola Epidemic (West Africa)

2016:- The Epidemic of “Zika” Virus (America)

2019 :- The Corona Virus(Covid-19) (Epicentre China, Spreading across the countries)

The economic risks of epidemics are not trivial. The consequences of outbreaks and epidemics are not distributed equally throughout the economy. Some sectors may even benefit financially while others will suffer disproportionately. Pharmaceutical companies that produce vaccines, antibiotics or other products needed  for outbreak response are potential beneficiaries. Health and insurance companies are likely to bear heavy costs at least in the short term. Vulnerable populations particularly the poor are likely to suffer disproportionately  as they may have less access to health care and lower savings to protect against financial catastrophe.

On 32.12.2019, WHO was alerted to a cluster of pneumonia patients in Wuhan City, Hubei province of China. One week later on 07.01.2020, Chinese authorities confirmed the identification of a novel(new) corona virus as the cause of pneumonia and proposed the interim name of the virus 2019-nCov.

Epidemiological overview as on 08.04.2020 across the Globe:-

A total  of more than 1.4 million confirmed cases have been reported worldwide.

More than 80,000 fatalities across the globe till date.

Over 3,00,000 patients  are reported to have recovered.

The precise zoonotic  origin of the 2019-nCov is still uncertain. The virus has been identified in environmental samples from a live animal market in Wuhan and some human cases have been epidemiologically linked to this market.

Preventive measures taken by the affected countries:-

1. Surveillance case definitions of human infections with 2019-nCov
2. Interim Guidance on laboratory testing of human cases.
3. Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when 2019-nCov is suspected.
4. Infection prevention and control during healthcare when 2019 nCov  infection is suspected.
5. Homecare for patients with suspected Covid-19 infection presenting the mild symptoms and management of contacts.

The effect of Pandemic on economic activity are being felt far and wide ,far beyond the airline, travel, tourism , hospitality sectors further exacerbating the slowdown in consumption and activity being witnessed in the Indian Economy.

According to IMF, ’This is a crisis like no other’. A crisis is like nothing in last 75 years and one that would be more severe than the last global financial crisis. As per WHO, this is an unprecedented crisis, which demands an unprecedented response.

By March 11,2020, when the WHO declared COVID-19 as a Pandemic, its impact was being felt across the globe by the approx 7.8 billion humans living on the planet. Globally many are drawing parallels with the financial crisis of 2008 and the great depression in the 1930s. As the IMF chief rightly said, the global financial systems are more resilient now to assuage anxieties comparing it to 2008.but given that no one sure how long the crisis will last or unfold , IMF has found it necessary to say , under any scenario, Global growth in 2020 will drop below last year’s level. Although it is difficult to predict how far it will fall and for how long , but also it would depend on the timeliness & effectiveness of our actions. As per Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at CARE Ratings, the impact will be stark.Covid-19 has already affected several nations, including main drivers of world Economy-the US and Europe, China, Japan. It does not look like that growth for 2020 could be in the region of 1 percent –from the 2.25 percent expected earlier, going by the way the virus spread, affecting Global output and trade in both goods and services, as the United Nations projects that FDI flows could fall between 5 and 15 percent to their lowest levels since 2008-2009 Global financial crisis.

At the domestic sectoral levels too, tourism and travel related industries will be among the hardest hit so as the social forms of art and cultural entertainment. With an estimated cost of $63 billion to $113 billion in revenue of Global air carriers in the F.Y 2020,and for the  International Film market , same would be around $5 billion, an likely impact on country’s aforesaid sectors can easily be anticipated.

MSMEs  in the Country are not the exceptions too particularly in a situation when they are burdened by the fixed costs without businesses, putting a lot of pressure on them. Long Lines of Migrant workers streamed out of recently closed railway stations, with thousands of men almost none of them wearing masks marching close together to far flanged  villages potentially spreading the virus deep into the countryside. Apex Organisation in the Country “SIDBI” might need additional capitalisation and its charter could be tweaked to operate on the model of the development banking institutions focussed on MSME.

The Global Shock comes at  a particularly inopportune time for India, as the economy was already on a  downward trajectory since the very turn of 2018-19.As per records ,to be specific, Country’s growth rate fell from around 8% in Q4 FY 18 -19 to a new low of 4.5% in Q2  FY 19-20.

The deeply entrenched slowdown also in the informal sector  is also being  exacerbated by acute banking sector problems  saddled by non performing assets(NPAs) driven by “Crony Capitalism” enhancing pace to dubious lending practices and bad loans in turn generalised credit crunches in the informal sectors due to stresses in the non banking financial sectors.

According to the Foreign Minister of Singapore Vivian Balakrishnan, ‘Covid-19 is an acid test of every single country’s quality of healthcare, standard of governance and social capital. If any of this tripod is weak, it will be exposed and exposed quite unmercifully by this epidemic’.

The economic  blueprint for the  our country needs to be redrawn at least for coming few years (preferably 1-2 years) with more emphasis on survival and revival over expansion & growth.

Upon Liberalisation over nearly 30 years , India has pursued a policy to maximise growth on the assumption that the tickle down theory effect  will take care of the bottom of the pyramids. In the immediate future, concerns relating to quality healthcare, sustainable livelihood, fair wages and access to organised credit need to be addressed in order to avoid the risk of social unrest.

The increasing widespread of Covid-19 has transformed the world’s hustle into varying degrees of uncertainty. The current downturn is fundamentally different from the recessions we have seen in the past. This is not just another turn of the business cycle, but a shakeup of the world economic order. The Supply chain disruption has brought to light the impact of “Black Swan “ events. That along with the ongoing geopolitical environment and a global recessionary climate is likely to lead to greater protectionism and risk aversion. This is expected to lead to more localisation of supply chains and especially of essentials  and for sectors that are seen as strategically important. The Prime Minister’s recent call for “Make in India” in the wake of Covid-19 could be seen a most viable option for the current circumstances. This will inherently give a new horizon to the way we work with far reaching implications on B2B, B2C, B2G services, Commercial real estate, e-commerce-governance, cyber security, data analytics, self service capabilities etc.

With the decelerated real GDP to its lowest in over six years and the outbreak of COVID-19 posed fresh challenges, steps taken for the containment of its spread  through nationwide lockdown for 21 days, have brought economic activity to a standstill that could impact both consumption and investment. Barring  a few sectors, Indian enterprises can possibly insulate themselves from the global supply chain disruptions coz of its limited interference with the global value chain, relatively lower resilience on intermediate imports . In a nutshell, the major contributors i.e. private consumptions, investments and external trade will get affected.

We cannot predict which pathogen will spur the next major epidemic, where that epidemic will originate  or how dire the consequences will be. But as long as humans and infectious pathogen coexists, outbreaks and epidemics are certain to occur and to impose significant costs. The upside is that we can take proactive steps to manage the risks of epidemic and mitigate their impact. Concerted action now at local, national & multinational levels can go a long way towards protecting our collective well being in future.

What is hopefully clear is that all these aforesaid scenarios leave some grounds for fear, but also some for hope. Covid-19 is  highlighting serious deficiencies in our existing system. An effective response to this is likely to require radical social change. As the UNCTAD in its latest report ‘The COVID-19 Shock to Developing Countries’ has envisaged that major economies least exposed to recession would be  India  & China. The upside of this is the possibility that we build a more humane system that leaves us more resilient in the face of future pandemics and other impending crises like climate change by means of change of gross habits,  alternative income generation, reforms in health sectors as well as education sectors too. Social change can come from many places with many influences. A key task for all of us is demanding that emerging social forms  came from an ethic that values care, life & democracy. We also need to realise that COVID-19 is likely to lead to a new normal- being  aware of and preparing for these shifts will help businesses and economics  navigate in the post COVID-19 world.

 

14 April- B.R. Ambedkar Remembrance Day

B.R. Ambedkar Remembrance Day is also known as Ambedkar Jayanti or Bhim Jayanti which is observed on 14 April to commemorate the memory of B.R Ambedkar. This day celebrates the birthday of Baba Saheb Bhimrao Ambedkar, an Indian politician and social rights activist.

In these dark times, good Samaritans are leaving no stone unturned to help their government and society fight the COVID pandemic. Here is the story of one such angel!

Nghakliani, a 95-year-old woman from Aizwal, Mizoram, donated her one-month pension to the Chief Minister’s Relief Fund. Apart from this, she also gave way the hand-stitched masks to Grace nursing home, Aizwal. She is not done yet and continues to stitch masks for frontline workers despite the constraints of lockdown. A seamstress by profession, she is the widow of a former Mizoram MLA. Despite financial constraints, Nghakliani, moved by hardships borne by people, could not stop herself from doing something in this gloomy hour. It is her compassion for people that keeps her going at this ripe age amidst all her hardships.